Browsing Category: "Fundamentals"

What if .. ICICI bank…..

Sunday, October 12th, 2008 | Fundamentals, Impact with No Comments »
 

The deposit insurance system in India is subject to the Provisions of Deposit Insurance Act (enacted in 1961). Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) is the body that operates the deposit insurance system. Q1 Which banks are insured by the DICGC?

Commercial Banks: All commercial banks including branches of foreign banks functioning in India, local area banks and regional rural banks are insured by the DICGC.

Cooperative Banks: All State, Central and Primary cooperative banks, also called urban cooperative banks, functioning in States / Union Territories which have amended the local Cooperative Societies Act empowering the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to order the Registrar of Cooperative Societies of the State / Union Territory to wind up a cooperative bank or to supersede its committee of management and requiring the Registrar not to take any action regarding winding up, amalgamation or reconstruction of a co-operative bank without prior sanction in writing from the Reserve Bank are covered under the Deposit Insurance Scheme. At present all co-operative banks other than those from the States of Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, and the Union Territories of Chandigarh, Lakshadweep and Dadra & Nagar Haveli are covered under the deposit insurance scheme of DICGC.

Primary cooperative societies are not insured by the DICGC.

Q2 What does the DICGC insure?

In the event of a bank failure, DICGC protects bank deposits that are payable in India. The DICGC insures all deposits such as savings, fixed, current, recurring, etc. except the following types of deposits (i) Deposits of foreign Governments; (ii) Deposits of Central/State Governments; (iii) Inter-bank deposits; (iv) Deposits of the State Land Development Banks with the State co-operative bank; (v) Any amount due on account of deposit received outside India; (vi) Any amount, which has been specifically exempted by the Corporation with the previous approval of Reserve Bank of India.

Q3 What is the maximum deposit amount insured by the DICGC?

Presently, deposits of each depositor in a bank is insured upto a maximum of Rs.1,00,000 (Rupees One Lakh) for both principal and interest amount held by him “in the same right and same capacity” as on the date of liquidation/cancellation of bank’s licence or the date on which the scheme of amalgamation/merger/reconstruction comes into force.

Q4 How will I know whether my bank is insured by the DICGC or not?

The DICGC while registering the banks as insured banks furnishes them with printed leaflets for display giving information relating to the protection afforded by the Corporation to the depositors of the insured banks. In case of doubt, depositor should make specific enquiry from the bank’s officials in this regard or visit DICGC website on the web address www.dicgc.org.in.

Q5. What is the ceiling on amount of Insured deposits kept by one person in different branches of a bank?

The deposits kept by one person in different branches of a bank are aggregated for the purpose of insurance cover and presently a maximum amount upto Rupees one lakh is paid.

Q6 Does the DICGC insure just the principal deposit amount or both principal and
accrued interest?

The DICGC insures principal and interest upto a maximum amount of Rs. One lakh. For example, if an individual had deposit(s) with principal amount of Rs.95,000 plus accrued interest of Rs.4,000, the total amount insured by the DICGC would be Rs.99,000. If, however, the principal amount were Rs. One lakh, the accrued interest would not be insured, not because it was interest but because the amount was over the insurance limit.

Q7 Can deposit insurance be increased by depositing funds into several different
accounts all at the same bank?

No. All funds held in the same type of ownership at the same bank are added together before deposit insurance is determined. If the funds are in different types of ownership or are deposited into separate banks they would then be separately insured.

Q8 What is a single ownership account?

A single (or individual) ownership account is an account owned by one person. Such accounts include those in the owner’s name; those established for the benefit of the owner by agents, nominees, guardians, custodians, or conservators; and those established by a business that is a sole proprietorship.

Q9 Are deposits in different banks separately insured?

Yes. If you have deposits with more than one bank, deposit insurance coverage limit is applied separately to the deposits in each bank.

Q10 If I have deposits at two different banks, and those two banks are closed on
the same day, are my funds added together, or insured separately?

Your funds from each bank would be insured separately, regardless of the date of closure.

Q11 What is the meaning of deposits held in the same right and capacity and
different right and capacity?

If a person opens in his name more than one account in a bank, for example Mr. K.A.Pandit opens one savings account and one or more fixed deposit accounts, all the accounts are considered in the same right and same capacity and insurance coverage is limited to a maximum of Rupees one lakh. But if Mr. K.A.Pandit opens a joint account, the joint account is considered in a different right and different capacity and insurance coverage is provided separately. Each joint account is insured separately from any deposits individually owned by the joint depositors. Each joint account owned by a combination of different persons is insured upto Rupees one lakh. All joint accounts owned by the combination of same persons are added together and the combined total is insured upto Rupees one lakh.

 

Illustrations
Deposits held in different capacities

Savings

Current

FD

Total

Deposits

A/C

A/C

A/C

Deposits

Insured

Shri S. K. Pandit

17,200

22,000

80,000

1,19,200

1,00,000

(Individual)
Shri S. K. Pandit

75,000

50,000

1,25,000

1,00,000

(Partner of ABC & Co.)
Shri S. K. Pandit

7,800

80,000

87,800

87,800

(Guardian for Master Ajit)
Shri S. K. Pandit

2,30,000

45,000

2,75,000

1,00,000

(Director, J.K. Udyog Ltd.)

 

Deposits held in joint accounts

Account (i) First a/c holder- “Shri A. K. Sharma” Maximum insured amount upto
Second a/c holder - “Smt. B. Sharma” Rs.1 lakh
Account (ii) First a/c holder - ” Shri A. K. Sharma” Maximum insured amount upto
Second a/c holder - “Shri P. Sharma” Rs.1 lakh
Account (iii) First a/c holder - “Smt. B. Sharma” The a/c will be clubbed with the
Second a/c holder-”Shri A. K. Sharma” a/c at (i)
Account (iv) First a/c holder - “Shri A. K. Sharma” Maximum insured amount upto
Second a/c holder - “Smt. B. Sharma” Rs.1 lakh
Third a/c holder - “Shri P. Sharma”
Account (v) First a/c holder - “Smt. B. Sharma” The a/c will be clubbed with the
Second a/c holder - “Shri P. Sharma” a/c at (iv)
Third a/c holder - “Shri A. K. Sharma”

Q12 Can the bank deduct the amount of dues payable to it by the depositor?

Yes. Banks have the right to set off their dues from the amount of deposits. The deposit insurance is available after netting of such dues.

Q13 Who pays the cost of deposit insurance?

Deposit insurance premium is borne entirely by the insured bank.

Q14 When is the DICGC liable to pay?

If a bank goes into liquidation: The DICGC is liable to pay to each depositor through the liquidator, the amount of his deposit upto Rupees one lakh within two months from the date of receipt of claim list from the liquidator.

If a bank is reconstructed or amalgamated / merged with another bank: Where in respect of an insured bank a scheme of compromise or arrangement or of reconstruction or amalgamation has been sanctioned by any competent authority and the said scheme provides for each depositor being paid or credited with, on the date on which the scheme comes into force, an amount which is less than the original amount and also the specified amount, the Corporation shall be liable to pay to every such depositor in accordance with the provisions of section 18 of DICGC Act an amount equivalent to the difference between the amount so paid or credited and the original amount, or the difference between the amount so paid or credited and the specified amount, whichever is less:

Provided that where any such scheme also provides that any payment made to a depositor before the coming into force of the scheme shall be reckoned towards the payment due to him under that scheme, then the scheme shall be deemed to have provided for that payment being made on the date of its coming into force.

Q15 Does the DICGC directly deal with the depositors of failed banks?

No. In the event of a bank’s liquidation, the liquidator prepares depositor wise claim list and sends it to the DICGC. After scrutiny the DICGC pays the money to the liquidator who is liable to pay to the depositors. In the case of amalgamation / merger of banks, the amount due to each depositor is paid to the transferee bank.

Q16 Can any insured bank withdraw from the DICGC coverage?

No. The deposit insurance scheme is compulsory and no bank can withdraw from it.

Q17 Can the DICGC withdraw deposit insurance cover from any bank?

The Corporation may cancel the registration of an insured bank if it fails to pay the premium for three consecutive half year periods. In the event of the DICGC withdrawing its cover from any bank for default in the payment of premium the public will be notified through newspapers.

Registration of an insured bank stands cancelled if the bank is prohibited from accepting fresh deposits; or its licence is cancelled or a licence is refused to it by the Reserve Bank; or it is wound up either voluntarily or compulsorily; or it ceases to be a banking company or a co-operative bank within the meaning of Section 36A(2) of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949; or it has transferred all its deposit liabilities to any other institution; or it is amalgamated with any other bank or a scheme of compromise or arrangement or of reconstruction has been sanctioned by a competent authority and the said scheme does not permit acceptance of fresh deposits. In the event of the cancellation of registration of a bank, deposits of the bank remain covered by the insurance till the date of the cancellation.

Q18 What will be the Corporation’s liability on de-registration of banks ?

The Corporation has deposit insurance liability on liquidation etc. of “insured banks” i.e. banks which have been de-registered (a) on account of prohibition on acceptance of fresh deposits or (b) on cancellation of license or where it is found that license can not be granted. The liability of the Corporation in these cases is limited to the extent of deposits as on the date of cancellation of registration of bank as an insured bank subject to the monetary ceilings applicable.

On liquidation etc. of other de-registered banks i.e. banks which have been de-registered on other grounds such as non payment of premium or their ceasing to be eligible cooperative banks under section 2(gg) of the DICGC Act, 1961, the Corporation has no liability.

Play safe in these troubled times; invest in FDs, FMPs

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008 | Fundamentals with No Comments »

Investors should look at bank fixed deposits and fixed maturity plans of mutual funds which provide cushion and relatively risk free returns during these uncertain times. Financial planners say that fixed deposits could be of paramount importance to senior citizens or those with limited risk appetite.

In the case of debt avenues like fixed deposits, most public sector banks are offering 10 per cent for a 1-year fixed deposit, and 10.5 per cent in the case of senior citizens. And for a fixed deposit of say Rs 50, 000, the entire interest of Rs 5, 000 can be received without any TDS, if the depositor has a gross income of around Rs 1.5 lakh per annum. The FD holder would need to submit a tax declaration form 15 to the bank, to get his interest without TDS.

However, investors in higher tax brackets like 20 or 30 per cent, could see their returns come down to as low as 7 per cent. Of course, with inflation currently close to 12.5 per cent levels, this option may not help an investor keep up with the rising cost of inflation.

“The key aspect here is protection of an investor’s savings, but the returns are modest,” said Amar Pandit, director, My Financial Advisor.

Another debt investment avenue in vogue is fixed maturity plans launched by mutual funds. A majority of these FMPs invest solely in debt instruments, depending upon the tenure of the plan. However, financial planners highlight that FMPs become relevant especially to investors in the high tax bracket. That’s because, funds give returns to their investors of FMPs in the form of dividends, which are subject to dividend distribution tax of 14 per cent. As a result, for investors in the higher tax bracket of 30 per cent, his net return via FMP is close to 8.6 per cent levels, better than a plain vanilla fixed deposit.

However, for those investors with a longer time horizon and with an appetite for risk, financial planners point out that it could be the right time to evaluate opportunities in the stock market or gold.

The 37 per cent dip in Sensex from its peak in January 08 provides attractive investment opportunities. That’s because with the Sensex at 13,120 levels, it is currently trading at 16.5 times trailing P/E, well below the peak of 28.5 times in early January.

“Equities are the best option to grow one savings in the long term,” said financial planner Kartik Jhaveri of Transcend Consulting.

To leverage opportunities in this space, investors could consider investing directly in the stock market or could leverage the professional investment services offered via mutual fund schemes.

Jhaveri points out that if one is investing directly, one could consider large cap stocks in sectors which offer growth opportunities over the next few years like telecom, healthcare or engineering sector. Investors could also leverage SIP schemes offered by mutual funds, which start at just Rs 1000 per month, typically for a three year period.

Another popular avenue in today’s uncertain times is gold. Returns from gold depend upon the price at which one buys. In Thursday’s trade, domestic gold prices posted their biggest intra-day rise in 27 years to Rs 12,915 levels per 10 gram.

However, despite the volatility in gold prices, this yellow metal has been a sound investment avenue during these uncertain times. For instance, gold ETFs have given a return of nearly 26 per cent since the beginning of calendar year 2008, the highest for any investment category, whether debt or equity linked funds.


US meltdown: 5 lessons for investors

Monday, September 22nd, 2008 | Fundamentals with No Comments »

The stunning collapse of Lehman Brothers and the crisis engulfing Wall Street is having an impact across the world. There could be several more developments over the next few months that might make things more difficult.

For investors, this is an important period to learn from such developments. This will ensure that they are not in a tough situation in the future. Here are five such important lessons.

US crisis spooks global economy

Every investment has risk: Typically, during good times, investors tend to ignore the risk element in a paper and focus only on returns.

Investors in equities stand to lose their entire money, if the company goes down. The plunging shares prices of Lehman Brothers, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to one dollar proves that entire market capitalisations can simply get wiped out.

Even debt market products get badly hit on account of the write-down of the debt that they hold.  So, a portfolio needs to be as diversified as possible to insulate a person for such situations.

Everything is interlinked: From the price of a stock to an insurance policy, everything is linked. A fall in the price of a particular stock in Europe could mean the overseas mutual fund, where you have invested, is likely to see a fall in its net asset value. Even an insurance policy with a domestic company, which has a foreign partner, can be adversely impacted.

The latter implies you will lose your premiums as well as your cover. While such risks cannot be avoided, a portfolio that contains only domestic stocks or an insurance company may sound safe, but there is no guarantee that it will not be impacted adversely.

Diversify, the only mantra for retirement planning: The result of all the financial planning is gauged by the final corpus that you are able to create for retirement.

A sufficiently-big nest will ensure that there are adequate funds during the sunset years. Many people, even those who are in the financial sector, make the basic mistake of putting all their eggs in one basket.

Many a time, employees buy shares of their own companies thinking that being an insider they are privy to the most-sensitive information. This could lead to a great risk, if suddenly something were to go wrong.

The solution again is diversification. Having exposure to local equities, international equities, debt, commodities together would be a better idea to create a sound portfolio that will weather tough times. And even within each of these areas, spread the money across investment options.

Treat your career like an investment: Most people do not pay the right amount of attention to their career or working life. Just like an investment that needs constant monitoring and analysis, there is a need to monitor the career in the same manner. Most people are shocked when they lose their jobs.

The better way is to be prepared for the worst. That will help to insulate you from any career related problem.

Also, concentration on issues like upgrading skills through training, attending conferences and seminars and networking will help to improve your career. Yes, all these cost money. However, the returns over the years are much more.

Save during good times: Most importantly, when the earnings are high, save well. Good times are not for ever. Creating a meaningful portfolio or a simple savings corpus would be of great help during bad times. Proper investments will ensure that there are reserves that can be used during emergencies.

A sum of Rs 10,000 saved each month for 25 years growing at 15 per cent annually will give rise to a corpus of Rs 2.55 crore (Rs 25.5 million). All this money can be rather useful when the cash flow actually stops

http://www.rediff.com/money/2008/sep/22bcrisis1.htm

50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008 | Fundamentals with No Comments »

50 Factors that Affect the Value of the US Dollar

Would you believe something as mundane as a rainstorm in New England can affect the value of the Dollar? It’s true. The US Dollar is subject to numerous influences, from politics to Walmart, and everything in between. The following list contains 50 factors that affect the value of the US dollar, both big and small.

Balance of trade and investment

The balance of trade and investment is often cited by analysts as the most important influence on the value of the dollar, with good reason. The balance of trade, related to the current account, represents the difference between what the US exports and imports in terms of goods and services.

The balance of investment, or financial account, represents the difference in exports and imports of capital. If exports exceed imports, in either the current account or financial account, it is called a surplus. When imports exceed exports, on the other hand, it is referred to as a deficit. The following points elaborate on how the current account and financial account affect the USD.

  1. Balance of trade: Otherwise known as the current account balance, the trade balance is equal to the difference between imports and exports. The US has been running a trade deficit with the rest of the world for most of recent memory. At $2 billion a day and growing, the trade deficit is making foreign investors increasingly nervous and can affect the dollar significantly.
  2. Falling prices on foreign goods: When the prices of foreign goods decrease, they become more attractive to American consumers, creating a larger trade deficit. Conversely, a rise in the prices of foreign goods, through natural price inflation or because or increased demand, can make American goods look more attractive and help to narrow the trade deficit. This also supports American industry and the economy. All of this serves to help the dollar.
  3. Balance of investment: When the US imports more than it exports, it means investors from other countries have to buy US assets to keep the dollar from falling. Simply stated, if the US imports more than it exports, foreign investors must buy dollar-denominated assets like bonds or treasury securities in order to offset the difference.

Politics

Government policies often have a great impact on the value of the dollar. Savvy foreign investors know to keep an eye on the state of our political affairs, especially as they impact the strength of our economy and our ability to service the national debt.

  1. Budget deficit and national debt: The US government’s budget can affect the dollar’s value, too. If foreign investors see that the government is spending more money than it currently has, they know that it will be forced to borrow from future generations as well as from the private sector from foreign entities. The US national debt currently stands at $9 trillion and is growing by over $1 billion per day.
  2. Little or no default on debt: When the government keeps a good credit history, risk goes down and the dollar goes up. Fortunately, the US is currently considered the world’s most credit-worthy borrower, which in large part explains why the dollar has remained strong.
  3. President’s popularity: Often, the popularity of the US president is tied to the value of the dollar. Experts debate whether or not the two have an effect on each other, but reports point out that “international investors like to a see a strong U.S. executive because they prefer a single national decider setting the agenda and fear a fractious, parochial Congress.”
  4. Terrorist attacks and war: Attacks damage consumer and business confidence, hampering economic growth. They also increase the likelihood of war, and consequently, a budget deficit to support associated spending. An ongoing war can quickly become expensive. It makes investors nervous because it will likely increase our national debt, and slightly increase the risk of default.
  5. Geopolitical events: Anything that could be seen as precipitating a conflict or foreign involvement can affect the dollar negatively. The value isn’t necessarily about what it’s actually worth, but rather what investors think it’s worth. Perception is often reality in the forex markets.
  6. Consistent policies: If investors feel that things will largely stay the same, they’ll flock to the dollar because it’s a safe bet. This increases demand and thus, the value of the dollar. Remember, unlike many other investment vehicles, forex is hurt by volatility. This is especially true with regard to financial policy: if investors believe US policy is on the right track, they’ll want to put money in dollar-denominated investments. Conversely, investors can lose faith in an economy that can change with new policies, so they’ll see the dollar as less of a safe bet.
  7. Government expansion: New departments and increased government functions cost money, too. Like other government expenses, expanding or creating new groups like the TSA and the Department of Homeland Security can lower the dollar’s value due to their opportunity cost against other expenses in the budget.
  8. Elections: Confidence in or wariness of a new administration can cause investors to flock to or flee from the dollar. Also, as new members of Congress are elected, new laws are passed which can affect our economy. Foreign investors may react positively or negatively to these changes, affecting the dollar’s value.
  9. Tax cuts for consumers: Tax cuts for consumers fuel spending, which can improve the economy of our country as well as others, like China. This can be good for the dollar as long as it does not deepen the trade deficit or our budget deficit. On the other hand, increases in taxes discourage personal spending, but they help with government spending and debt. This can slow the economy, but at the same time lessen our deficits.

Other countries

Political impact on the dollar does not originate entirely from the US; it can come from all over the world. Trade, conflict, consumption, and other issues can affect the dollar from outside our country.

  1. Turmoil in other countries: When other countries are in a state of conflict, their respective currencies may be perceived as unstable. In this case, investors may flock to the dollar because it is considered a safer bet.
  2. Stability in other countries: On the other hand, if other countries are consistent in their policy-making as well as politically and economically stable, the dollar may weaken because investors have more confidence in these alternative currencies. They’ll see them as less risky and diversify into non-dollar denominated assets.
  3. A change in foreign reserves: The USD benefits strongly from being the world’s reserve currency. Most central banks hold more dollars than any other currency, but the dollar faces problems when they decide to diversify their currency investments. This could mean that they sell dollars, or simply just stop buying more. This is especially damaging when a large purchaser like China decides to stop adding to its foreign reserves.
  4. A strengthening Euro: The dollar faces competition from the rising Euro. It’s an attractive alternative to the dollar when investors choose to diversify or if the dollar becomes unstable.
  5. Acceptance of oil in dollars: As long as the majority of world oil contracts are settled in USD, other countries have to use the currency. This increases demand for the dollar and therefore, its value. Additionally, most oil exporters hold a significant portion of their oil proceeds in dollars.
  6. Strong foreign economies: If other countries’ economies are booming, the dollar may fall because it will become a relatively less attractive place to invest.

Entitlements

As a significant government expense, entitlement programs can have a large impact on the way investors view the value of the dollar. If it looks like the US is letting things get out of hand, these programs can shake the confidence of investors. These are a few of the programs and issues that affect the dollar.

  1. Social Security: It’s apparent to Americans and foreigners alike that Social Security is a sinking ship that will only get worse with time. Clearly, this causes investors to lose faith in the US money management system, but when the US works to reform the program, some of this confidence is restored and the dollar can benefit.
  2. Medicare/Medicaid: Like other costly entitlements, government sponsored-health care programs are becoming difficult to maintain, which could drive investors to seek countries with more stable budgets.

Economic theory

The laws of supply and demand are ever-present in economics, and currency trading offers a prime example of this law in action. These are a few of the effects that supply and demand exert on the value of the dollar.

  1. Demand for dollars: This factor can be tied to most others, but it can function on its own as well. For example, “if French investors saw an opportunity in the U.S., they might be willing to pay more francs in order to get dollars to invest in the U.S.” More francs per dollar means the dollar’s value has risen.
  2. Demand for physical currency outside the US: Some countries accept dollars as a physical currency, so they need a supply. For example, “large international demand for US currency bills in the 1990s gave the US government a unique and inexpensive- to-produce export.” Although it requires supplying more currency, this is a factor that can strengthen the dollar’s value.
  3. Increase in money supply: With every new dollar printed, each one is valued less than before. The more dollars there are in circulation, the less the currency is valued because the supply has been increased. In practice, this usually causes inflation, which directly eats into the value of the dollar. While this would seem difficult to measure, the Federal Reserve periodically publishes M2 and M3 data reports on the US money supply.

Interest rates

Just like consumers might shop around for the highest-yielding savings account, foreign investors look for the best deal in currencies. Here’s how interest rates affect the dollar’s value.

  1. Rise in interest rates: Higher interest rates mean more profit for investors, so a US rate hike will generally strengthen the dollar. In the long-term, however, the law of interest rate parity dictates that currency valuations and interest rates should move in opposite directions. The opposite also holds true. If the Fed lowers interest rates, investors might drop the dollar in the short-term because there’s not enough profit in it.
  2. Attractive interest rates in other countries: Regardless of whether US interest rates are rising or falling, the dollar’s value also depends on how US interest rates stack up to those of other countries. If US rates are lower, investors may switch to different currencies that can offer a better return. On the other hand, if other currencies have unattractive interest rates, that allows us to entice investors with a better deal.
  3. News about interest rates: Investors like to be ahead of the game, so if news of an interest rate hike or fall is released, the dollar may fluctuate in response to the coming inflow or outflow of investments that are expected to happen in the future.

American consumers

American consumers have the most at stake in the dollar’s value. A fall in the dollar makes consumers’ money worth comparatively less, putting a squeeze on the budgets of the Average Joe. Yet there are several things that consumers do that serve to drive down the buying power the dollar. Here’s how Americans do it.

  1. Consumer savings: Americans aren’t big on savings. In fact, most families have a negative net worth. While this has contributed to a strong economy in the short-term, it means the US is ill equipped to support the economy in the long-term. Additionally, negative domestic savings drives us to import foreign savings, which harms the dollar.
  2. Gas prices: Rising gas prices leave consumers with less money to spend elsewhere, or worse, drive them to borrow money to keep up their standard of living.
  3. The Walmart/Honda factor: When Americans buy foreign goods like items at Walmart or Honda cars, we contribute to an economy that supports more imports than exports. This creates a trade deficit that weakens the dollar.
  4. Slow spending: Just as too much spending can hurt the dollar, too little spending can have a negative effect as well. Analysts report that when we hit a slow shopping season, “the Fed might see that as a sign of consumer fatigue and choose to cut rates in an attempt to stimulate growth. That could hurt the dollar.”

Housing

Recently, we’ve seen how a housing boom and subsequent bust can cause problems for families, investors and lenders in the form of defaulted loans and drops in the value of homes. These same issues cause problems for the dollar, too.

  1. Slow housing market: A slow housing market creates a domino effect. Sellers are forced to lower their asking prices, which creates a decline in household spending and results in slowed economy growth, all of which hurts the dollar.
  2. Strong housing market: A growing, steady housing market builds the equity and net worth of home owners, spurring spending and growing our economy. This supports the dollar.
  3. Overinflated housing market: This kind of housing market results in a fall of equity and personal wealth, but it doesn’t stop there; it makes the dollar fall as well, as the effect of declining home prices ripples throughout the economy.

Industry and economic indicators

American industry both affects and reacts to the value of the dollar. When the dollar falls, our goods become cheaper and more attractive. However, when we have a strong dollar, our industries have to compete harder against cheaper foreign labor and goods.

  1. Low growth in manufacturing: Manufacturing levels serve as an indicator for the health of the US economy. An industry slowdown means a general slowing in the economy and can cause investors to become wary of the dollar.
  2. Strong manufacturing growth: Conversely, strong manufacturing growth can indicate that the economy is picking up, creating a more attractive dollar.
  3. Outsourcing: Outsourcing creates a trade deficit and causes US employment to suffer, resulting in a fall of the dollar. However, outsourcing also makes US companies more profitable and more attractive targets for foreign investment.
  4. Entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurship creates attractive investment opportunities for foreign investors, supporting a stronger dollar.
  5. Employment growth: Like manufacturing growth, employment growth is a good indicator for the overall health of the economy. Positive employment growth will attract more investors and create a stronger dollar. Unnaturally high unemployment causes the dollar to drop because the government loses tax revenue that could help with the deficit. It also takes consumer purchasing power away, which causes the economy to suffer.
  6. Wage data: Higher or lower wages can either attract or scare off investors, creating a fluctuation in the dollar’s value.

US capital markets

US stocks, bonds, and other investments can be appealing no matter where you are in the world. The performance of US capital markets can either attract or reduce foreign investment, which directly affects the dollar.

  1. Bear markets: Falling values create investment losses that shake investor confidence and cause them to diversify or liquidate their portfolios, resulting in a loss for the dollar if the diversification involves an exodus from dollar-denominated assets.
  2. Bull markets: Strong market values have the opposite effect, creating profits that attract new investors and encourage current investors to put more money into dollar-denominated assets. A booming market can attract investors, but it can also cause the dollar to fall when it corrects itself and investors pull out.
  3. Accounting scandals: Accounting scandals like Enron can burn investors and cause foreign investment in US stocks to fall.

Economy

The current performance of the US economy is synonymous with the financial health of our nation. It signals to investors our ability to pay back debts as well as the profit level they may earn.

  1. Economic growth and stability: In general, a strong economy will raise confidence, assuring foreign investors that they’ll earn a good profit on a stable investment. Economic growth is even better, attracting investors who hope that their investment will grow, too. A boom in the economy can cause an investment rush that results in a temporary overvalue of the market. This can lead to a dollar loss when it corrects itself in a slow of the economy.
  2. Economic recession: What goes up must come down. A slowing economy hurts the dollar, causing investors to pull out for fear that their investment will lose value.
  3. Outperforming other economies: Economic performance is all relative. If the US economy is stronger than others, investors may turn to the dollar as a safe bet.

Weather

Weather affects the agricultural industry, energy consumption, and local economies. Any change, for better or for worse, can create a ripple affect that impacts the economy as a whole and causes the dollar to fluctuate.

  1. Unfavorable farming conditions: Unfavorable farming conditions can result in slow crops and force grocers to turn to other countries to satisfy US agricultural needs. This further opens up the trade deficit and weakens the dollar.
  2. Unusually hot summers: An unusually hot summer can cause a rise in energy costs for both consumers and industries. This can create a strain on the economy and cause the dollar to fall. Just like an unusually hot summer can sink the dollar, an excessively cold winter can do the same thing. It can cause energy costs to rise, and since must of our energy is imported, the dollar may be adversely affected. Additionally, consumers will presumably have less disposable income to pour into other areas of the economy.
  3. Natural disasters: Natural disasters like Hurricane Katrina create a strain on local economies as well as the local and federal government as we work to repair damage and spend money on relief and rebuilding. This can cause the dollar to struggle.

Inflation

Inflation directly eats into the value of the dollar. The law of purchasing power parity (PPP) holds that a nation’s currency and its general price levels should move in opposite directions.

  1. Slow in inflation of foreign goods: A slow in inflation of foreign goods keeps prices of those goods steady, allowing American consumers to purchase the same amount or more of the same goods. This does not help to close the trade deficit and can weaken the dollar.
  2. News about inflation: Of course, any news about possible inflation of the dollar or foreign goods can cause the foreign exchange market to react preemptively and fluctuate the dollar one way or another.

Valuations changed post results

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008 | Fundamentals with No Comments »

Valuations have changed on a lot of the big boys post result season. Lets keep the focus on some sectors that have had other issues besides results to content with and see what sort of a re rating has happened on them.

Oil & Gas- Post Results and Crude Strength:

Reliance (Indirect benefit from pass on the refining front) (Whether it will be able to maintain GRMs still remains a concern)

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 23 x

FY09 P/E Now: 26 x

FY09 EV/EBITDA at the start of Result Season: 12.7 x

FY09 EV/EBITDA Now: 14.3x

Cairn (Upstream play which has benefited the most from surging crude)

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 50 x

FY09 P/E Now : 67 x

FY09 EV/EBITDA at the start of Result Season: 27 x

FY09 EV/EBITDA Now: 36 x

ONGC- Results not out yet but expects this upstream giant to continue to reel under the pressure of massive subsidy burden. Higher crude prices increases under recoveries significantly and hence there has been no real re rating in the stock.

IT- Post Results and Rupee weakness & subdued Q1 guidance:

Satyam Comp- Has seen the biggest re rating post rupee weakness

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 13 x

FY09 P/E Now: 16.1 x

FY09 EV/Sales at the start of Result Season: 2.1 x

FY09 EV/Sales Now: 2.6 x

Infosys

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 14.5 x

FY09 P/E Now: 17.8 x

FY09 EV/Sales at the start of Result Season: 3.4 x

FY09 EV/Sales Now: 4.2 x

TCS

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 13.5 x

FY09 P/E Now: 15.5 x

FY09 EV/Sales at the start of Result Season: 2.8 x

FY09 EV/Sales Now: 3.2 x

Wipro

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 16.2 x

FY09 P/E Now: 19 x

FY09 EV/Sales at the start of Result Season: 2.4 x

FY09 EV/Sales Now: 2.8 x

Banks- Post CRR and results:

In a tight credit scenario and where Private Banks have performed better on the Net Interest Income front and seen less margin pressure compared to PSUs the rerating has been more significant, ignoring the derivative losses.

PSU Banks:

SBI

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 14 x

FY09 P/E Now: 14.6 x

FY09 P/ABV at the start of Result Season: 1.82 x

FY09 P/ABV Now: 1.9 x

PNB

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 8.1 x

FY09 P/E Now: 8.2 x

FY09 P/ABV at the start of Result Season: 1.18 x

FY09 P/ABV Now: 1.2 x

Private Banks (Performed better the PSUs during and post result season):

ICICI Bank

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 18.8 x

FY09 P/E Now: 21.5 x

FY09 P/ABV at the start of Result Season: 1.66 x

FY09 P/ABV Now: 1.9 x

HDFC Bank

FY09 P/E at the start of Result Season: 24.6 x

FY09 P/E Now: 27.2 x

FY09 P/ABV at the start of Result Season: 3.5 x

FY09 P/ABV Now: 3.9 x

eXTReMe Tracker